AoA · Sports · The LensYour decision math, on one position.
Pick a live market + a YES/NO side, set your read — the Lens does the EV, the outcomes, the what-if, and shows its work. Not a pick.
← DeskYOUR POSITION · manual entry (OCR import = v1 mock)
No priced live games right now — check back during game windows (status reflects reality, never faked).
PRESSTHE READ
Edge clears the fee hurdle — add to the position.
HOLD
Inside the noise band — no edge worth the rake. Wait.
HEDGE
Market moved against your read — lock risk, take the other side.
OUTCOME GRIDbreakeven win-prob 51.7%
Contract WINS (settles YES)
100 × ((1 − 0.50) − fee)
+$48.25
Contract LOSES (settles NO)
100 × (−0.50 − fee)
-$51.75
Max loss = the premium you paid + fee. Settlement is the ground truth — no rebuy, no hope.
WHAT-IF
Lock it or ride it? The take-profit vs hold call — after fees, every path.
Take profit NOW (sell at mid)
exit 50¢ − fee
-$1.75
Hold → it WINS
settles YES (1.00)
+$48.25
Hold → it REVERSES
settles NO (0.00)
-$51.75
Quant Me Now
Freeze this call (no lookahead) — it joins the Solver Track Record and gets graded vs let-it-ride at settlement.
Informational decision math, not betting advice. SIM-safe · read-only odds · fees in every number.