Prediction-market intelligence — the rake math, how a line is built, who's on the other side. And the tests where we show our work, including our losers.
Maker vs taker, and why it's 4× more expensive to trade a coin-flip than a longshot.
Read →Forecasting is hard and fees eat thin edges. The durable edge is mostly not losing.
Read →Power ratings + home field + the situational components — with the real numbers.
Read →A CFTC-filed hedging program, fee rebates, and what it means for the edge picture.
Read →Two crowded lanes, one premium-education incumbent, and a wide-open gap in the middle.
Read →Across two rounds on real market tape: no bot beats costs net. The vig wins.
Read →A bot printed +EV with an implausible Sharpe. The money-printer guard found the lookahead.
Read →The next run: a disciplined fee-aware solver vs. a naive over-trader, same tape. Spec'd, running soon.
Read →Curated external links — read-only, sourced, descriptive. Not affiliated. Informational only.